The Economic Model is designed to portend changes in the direction of the US economy six to nine months in advance of a turning point. Note that the Model has been signaling an economic expansion since November 2008 about six months before GDP bottomed. Recent uneven readings signal the economic recovery continuing at a modest pace, constrained by slow job growth, depressed housing conditions and continued deleveraging.

For those who track the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), please note that current readings reflect several recent comprehensive component and benchmark weighting changes, the first such revisions since 1996. The revised LEI has closely tracked our firm's Economic Model throughout the time period. The FBA Economic Model was designed in 1994 to signal directional changes earlier than the LEI and has done so consistently since then.